Today’s stock market crash:Due to increased uncertainty surrounding the US administration’s upcoming reciprocal tariffs, the Indian stock market saw significant losses on Tuesday, April 1.
In contrast to its closing price of 77,414.92, the Sensex opened at 76,882.58 and plummeted 1,503 points to reach 75,912.18 throughout the session.
Ultimately, the 30-share index ended the day at 76,024.51, down 1,390 points, or 1.80%. At 23,165.70, the Nifty 50 closed 354 points, or 1.50 percent, lower.
The BSE Smallcap index ended 0.07 percent higher, while the BSE Midcap index ended 1.04 percent lower.
As the total market capitalization of companies listed on the BSE fell to over ₹410 lakh crore from nearly ₹413 lakh crore in the previous session, investors lost around ₹3 lakh crore in a single day.
Nifty Bank fell 1.4% among the sectoral indices, while the IT, consumer durables, financial services, and real estate sectors all had declines of 2-3%.
5 key factors that weigh on Indian stock market sentiment
1. Uncertainty over ‘Liberation Day’ tariff plan
Regarding US President Donald Trump’s proposed tariff rollout in April, investors are anxious. At an event in the White House Rose Garden at 3 PM in Washington on Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News that Trump would unveil his reciprocal tariff plan, according to Bloomberg.
The president referred to his declaration on April 2 as “Liberation Day,” signaling the beginning of a more stringent trade policy meant to penalize trading partners who he feels have exploited the United States.
Trump has stated that all nations will be included in his finalized tariff measures.
Experts suggest that while tariff threats can affect market sentiment, India might not be greatly affected because it is willing to lower tariffs on over half of US imports.
“On the foreign economic front, trade war continues to be a concern. In the first stage of a trade agreement, India is willing to lower duties on over half of US imports valued at $23 billion, according to media sources, said G Chokkalingam, Founder & Head of Research at Equinomics Research Private Limited.
Senior officers from the US and India concluded their four-day talks on Saturday, March 29. In the upcoming weeks, sectoral negotiations under the planned bilateral trade agreement (BTA) will take place between the US and India.
2. Focus shifts to RBI’s MPC
In light of the unstable global environment, the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will convene from April 7–9 to determine the policy stance and interest rates.
On April 9, the RBI MPC is probably going to announce a 25 basis point rate decrease. Market players, meanwhile, are keen to learn how the central bank views the nation’s changing inflation and growth patterns.
The RBI is expected to lower the repo rate by 25 basis points (bp), to 6 percent, according to Bank of America (BofA) Global Research. With headline inflation expected to stay below 4% over the coming months and exchange rate pressures significantly abating, the BofA stated that the route for additional easing appears clear.
3. Caution ahead of Q4 earnings
The December quarter (Q4FY25) earnings of Indian corporations will be the market’s next major catalyst. After three poor quarters, there are expectations of some improvement in Q4 data. The March market recovery might be derailed if Q4 results are worse than anticipated.
Experts predict that the first or second quarter of the fiscal year 2025–2026 could see a major recovery.
According to HDFC Securities’ MD and CEO, Dhiraj Relli, “the street expects Nifty earnings to grow between 12-15 per cent each in FY26 and FY27.”
4. Lack of fresh triggers
In March, the Indian stock market saw a strong 6% increase. The majority of the positives, such as the anticipated rate reduction, higher wages, and favorable growth-inflation dynamics, have been outweighed by this gain, though.
There are currently no new catalysts for the market to rise. Trump’s tariffs, earnings and macro prints will be the primary factors that will influence the trajectory of the domestic market in the near future.
5. Technical factors
Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Investments, claims that in order for the Nifty to regain its strength, it must rise sharply above 23,700–23,750. In any other case, it might go sideways with a downward tendency toward 23,300.
James stated that “directional trades of at least 250 points may be expected to be triggered by breakouts beyond the 23,750-23,300 bands.”
Because of the US tariff announcement on April 2, volatility is anticipated. The Nifty 50 may drop toward 23,400–23,200, providing a buying opportunity, if selling pressure increases. According to Jigar S. Patel, Senior Manager of Equity Research at Anand Rathi Share & Stock Brokers, the 23,000 level is still a crucial support, while 23,850 is a resistance level. A move toward 24,100–24,200 is possible.
